Dark-flight Estimates of Meteorite Fall Positions: Issues and a Case Study Using the Murrili Meteorite Fall

Abstract Fireball networks are used to recover meteorites, with the context of orbits. Observations from these cover bright flight, where meteoroid is luminescent, but a fallen meteorite, observations must often be predicted forward in time ground estimate an impact position. This dark-flight modeling deceptively simple, there hidden complexity covering precise interactions between meteorite and (usually active) atmosphere. We describe method approach by Desert Network, detailing issues we have addressed, that factors such as shape, mass, density on fall illustrate this case study Murrili occurred into Lake Eyre-Kati Thanda 2015. The was very well observed multiple viewpoints, trajectory steep, low-altitude endpoint, dark flight relatively short. 1.68 kg typical ordinary chondrite somewhat flattened shape compared sphere, discrepancies sphere-based predictions actual recovery location. It notable even idealized scenario, using spherically shaped projectiles resulted significant distance position recovered meteorite.